UPDATE: The Thanksgiving stretch will see the most amount of moviegoing for this fall after being slowed down by the actors strike.
Currently the top five movie standings in terms of grosses are looking better than that of the top five of 2021, our first holiday back post-pandemic which for all titles grossed $142M per Box Office Mojo. Last Thanksgiving’s Wednesday through Sunday stretch grossed $134M for all movies. Five day projections are always tricky, so take everything now with a grain of salt.
Disney Animation’s princess movie Wish from Frozen franchise director Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn is leading with an $8.7M Wednesday (including $2.3M in previews) at 3,900 sites which will translate to a $24M-$27M 3-day and $40M-$45M 5-day. Rotten Tomatoes audience score at 84% trumps critics score which is 46%. Wish cost between $175M-$200M before P&A.
Second place will likely go per rivals to Lionsgate’s second weekend of The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes at 3,776 theaters which is seeing $7M today, +8% from Tuesday, for a 3-day of $25M-$31M (-30% to -44%), and 5-day of $36M-$45M. Even though ranges are higher than Wish, the Disney pic is bound to notch No. 1. On the high end, that would get the Francis Lawrence directed movie to $101.4M by Sunday. The 5-day on Harry Potter spinoffs Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them and Fantastic Beasts Crimes of Grindelwald were $65.5M and $42.3M. The last Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, which is not a comp here, did $76M over its Thanksgiving holiday stretch back in 2015.
Apple Original Production’s Napoleon, distributed by Sony, at 3,500 theaters is looking at $7.4M today, including last night’s $3M, for a 3-day in the low $20M and 5-day $28-32M. That’s bound to beat the opening of Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci ($14.4M 3-day and $22M 5-day), which was also R-rated. That pic had a running time of 2 hours 38 minutes which is the same as Napoleon‘s. RT audience score is 68%, not far from critics score of 64%. Napoleon cost a reported $200M.
Fourth belongs to Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls Band Together at 3,870 theaters which has a Wednesday of $5M, 3-day of $18M (-40%) and 5-day of $26.3M and running total of $65.4M.
Fifth is TriStar/Spyglass Media’s horror movie Thanksgiving with a Wednesday of $1.7M second weekend in the mid digits and $9M 5-day.
PREVIOUS: Apple Original Productions’ Ridley Scott pic Napoleon via Sony won $3M in Tuesday night previews, while Disney’s Wish took in $2.3M. Both fired off at 3 p.m. It was a good day for moviegoing overall, with 47% K-12 schools out and 20% colleges, per ComScore; that figure rises to 84%/66% today, respectively, and 100% overall Thursday and into Black Friday.
That’s an impressive number for Napoleon, given the epic war movie that it is: It’s right under what 1917 did in previews (7 p.m.) for its wide expansion back in January 2020, which was $3.25M, and ahead of Apple/Paramount’s Killers of the Flower Moon, which was $2.6M.
1917 did $13.9M on its expanded Friday at 3,434 locations before posting a 3-day of $37M. Clearly, Napoleon will have a different gross pattern. Killers of the Flower Moon‘s first Friday was $9.4M before posting a Friday-through-Sunday of $23.2M. Also, Napoleon is ahead of Ridley Scott’s previous Thanksgiving 5-day release in regards to its previews, House of Gucci, which did $1.3M. That latter comp many were throwing around in regards to Napoleon.
Napoleon is booked at 3,017 theatres including PLFs and 70MM. Rotten Tomatoes reviews are at 66% fresh.
Wish‘s preview figure includes $500K from Saturday limited sneaks. Thanksgiving Disney animated comps here are Coco ($2.3M Tuesday, $73M 5-day in 2017) and Encanto ($1.5M, $41M in 2021). Wish opens wide today in 3,900 domestic locations including Premium Large Format, 3D, D-Box and 4D screens. Its score is 50% rotten.
Tracking for Wish spotted a $45M-$50M 5-day win to Napoleon‘s $22M. Wish is PG, while Napoleon is R-rated. No PostTrak exits from last night. CinemaScore polls tonight for both movies’ opening days.
Meanwhile, Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes led all movies with $6.5M (+24% over Monday’s $5.2M) at 3,776 theaters, taking its five-day running total to $56.4M. Songbirds & Snakes will share Imax screens with Napoleon over the five-day holiday stretch. A note about the movie’s Monday: It’s the best the 2023 fall box office has seen for that day after The Equalizer 3‘s Labor Day take of $8.2M. Ditto for Songbirds & Snakes‘ Tuesday, which posted the best for the current autumn season, topping Five Nights at Freddy’s $5.2M Halloween take. Songbirds & Snakes’ 5-day outlook is in the $30M+ range.
Second on Tuesday was Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls Band Together with $4.73M at 3,870 theaters, +45% over Monday’s $3.2M with a running total of $38M (read the review here).
TriStar and Spyglass Media’s Eli Roth horror movie Thanksgiving was third with $1.85M (+54% over Monday) from 3,204 locations, bringing its total domestic gross to $13M since Friday (review here).
Disney/Marvel Studios’ The Marvels grossed $1.5M yesterday at 4,030, +34%, for a $67M running total in the midst of its second week (review here).
Five Nights at Freddy‘s, which is on Peacock and at 2,829 theaters, made $530K yesterday, +4%, for a $133.7M running total in the middle of Week 4 (review here).