The family-friendly comedy The Breadwinner starring Nate Bargatze has received several concerning box office predictions. Releasing today, May 29, the film follows father of three Nate Wilcox (Nate Bargatze) as he is thrust into the role of a stay-at-home dad after his wife Katie Wilcox (Mandy Moore) has a successful pitch on Shark Tank. Directed by Eric Appel and co-written by Bargatze, this TriStar Pictures and Wonder Project production had a stronger box office forecast earlier this month. But the crowded summer calendar has potentially sapped much of the energy away from the comedy, which was delayed from its initial release date of March 13.
The Breadwinner’s box office predictions have sharply declined
The Breadwinner is predicted to earn $10 million, somewhere in the range of $7 million to $14 million, in its domestic opener from May 29 to May 31.
This forecast comes from a May 27 report from BoxOfficeTheory, which provides several reasons for why it has reduced its projections for the film. A prior report from the site on May 22 saw it optimistically earning $18 million (between $16 million and $23 million) in its domestic start. In a similar assessment, a separate box office prediction for the film from BoxOffice Pro has it earning only $6 million to $9 million in its domestic opener, which is a decline from its initial $8 million to $12 million projection from May 8.
The updated prediction from BoxOfficeTheory indicates The Breadwinner isn’t generating as much in pre-sales as originally thought and that its “social media-focused approach may have been too aggressive” given that the comedian’s audience had driven “excellent interaction and trailer views in the months leading to release.” The report reveals that the movie had a late marketing push with less expensive “Nate Rate” tickets, which will impact its overall box office numbers.
That said, it’s still possible that The Breadwinner will gain traction in the heartland of America, where tracking models tend not to emphasize compared to other metro areas. Whether or not it becomes a box office success will largely depend on “walk-up and family-focused business” as the film tries to stand out among other family-friendly blockbusters, like Star Wars: The Mandalorian & Grogu and the upcoming Toy Story 5 that releases in three weeks on June 19.
Unfortunately for The Breadwinner, it faces stiff competition against Brendan Frasier’s World War II film Pressure and A24’s surprise horror breakout Backrooms, which both release on the same day as the comedy does. Then just a week later, three more movies will be added to the theatrical lineup with Masters of the Universe, Scary Movie 6, and The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act. So audiences will have plenty of options to choose from.
On Rotten Tomatoes, the movie has received a low 25% critics rating based on 20 reviews, though the audience is higher at 85% (as of May 29). ComingSoon’s Jonathan Sim gave it a 6 out of 10 in his review. In general, critics say that moviegoers who enjoy Bargatze’s clean stand-up comedy will more likely appreciate the film, though many point out that the jokes and the premise are very similar to the 1983 family comedy Mr. Mom, which stars Michael Keaton and Teri Garr.
That said, the good news for The Breadwinner is that it has relatively low bar to break even at the box office. According to Deadline, the film only cost Sony Pictures $25 million to make before print and advertising. So if we follow the general guideline that movies need to make 2.5 times its budget to make a profit, the comedy will only needs to cross the estimated $62 million mark to make a profit. So even if The Breadwinner has a slow start in its debut, it still has a long runway to make up the difference.